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TEMPE, Ariz. — The final numbers on Phoenix-area foreclosures and home prices are in, and they may surprise you. A new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University shows, despite some positive momentum, 2011’s overall totals failed to show a big improvement from the numbers in 2010.
Throughout 2011, the market did experience a significant drop-off in the amount of monthly foreclosures as a percentage of transactions. In January of 2011, that rate was 43 percent, but it dropped all the way down to just under 29 percent in December.
“Although 2011 ended on a slightly more positive note than 2010, there are several issues, including a weak economic recovery and stricter mortgage underwriting guidelines playing a role here,” explains Professor Emeritus Jay Butler, the report’s author. “The main question for 2012 is whether homeowner/occupants will play an expanding role. We’re starting to see investors getting very involved again, and many have shifted from buying foreclosed homes to actually attending foreclosure auctions. The number of non-institutional investors with successful bids has moved from about 20 percent all the way up to just over 40 percent.”
All told, about 3 percent of all single-family existing homes in Maricopa County underwent foreclosures in 2011. More than 14 percent of all single-family homes in Maricopa County have been foreclosed on since 2008. Still, Butler emphasizes that many households are simply riding through this.
“While much is focused on the negative aspects of the current market, many homeowners have no real issues or have simply resolved to stay in their current homes,” says Butler. “This does impact buying and selling activity, but it also greatly benefits the expanded remodeling activity in the area.”
For homes that have been resold over the last year, about 40 percent were foreclosed homes sold again with a median price markdown of 14 percent.
Here’s a breakdown of the median home prices for a resold home (not new foreclosures) in each of the past several years:
Butler says will take years to fully reverse the drop from the peak. He is also quick to caution that it won’t be a straight upward trend, but rather, a back-and-forth dance over the next several years that he calls a “stretched recovery.”
This is expected to be the last report Butler will file as a real estate expert at the W. P. Carey School of Business, though he will remain a professor emeritus at Arizona State University. Butler has been at ASU for about 40 years and has been analyzing the Valley real estate market since 1978.
"Professor Butler actually retired last summer, but he has graciously continued his decades-long analysis of the Valley real estate market while we completed a transition of his work to others,” says W. P. Carey School of Business Dean Robert Mittelstaedt. “Over the years, Jay enriched learning opportunities for thousands of students through his teaching, and he enhanced the knowledge and understanding of real estate markets for all of us. We wish him the best in retirement."
Mike Orr, a well-known Phoenix-area housing analyst and founder of the popular real estate website called The Cromford Report, recently joined the W. P. Carey School of Business as director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice. He will continue to provide regular updates through the school about the Phoenix-area real estate market.
Butler’s final report, including statistics, charts and a breakdown by different areas of the Valley, can be viewed at http://wpcarey.asu.edu/finance/real-estate/upload/Press-Release-December-2011-resale-homes.doc. More analysis is also available from knowWPCarey, the business school’s online resource and newsletter, at http://knowwpcarey.com.
W. P. CAREY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University is one of the top-ranked and largest business schools in the United States. The school is internationally regarded for its research productivity and its distinguished faculty members, including a Nobel Prize winner. Students come from 99 countries and include 60 National Merit Scholars. For more information, please visit wpcarey.asu.edu and http://knowwpcarey.com.