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NEW! Quarterly Supplement to Job Growth Update National Consensus Forecast of Labor Employment, Compensation and Productivity Analysts optimistic about jobs and productivity but
wary of labor cost increases
With this issue we introduce a new feature to appear quarterly in Blue Chip Job Growth Update - forecasts of three key national economic variables influencing economic growth. The three measures are total nonagricultural employment, the employment cost index of total compensation within private industry, and nonfarm business productivity as tracked by output per hour of all persons. The source for all three indicators is the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A forecast panel of national analysts was assembled by Executive Editor Robert J. Eggert, who popularized the consensus approach to forecasting. Eggert is well known for his accuracy as a prognosticator in his own right and will be one of the 25 regular contributors to the outlook consensus. The national economy created more than 11 million jobs between 1995 and 1999, an annual average of 2.9 million over four years. The consensus forecast for 2000 is for growth of an additional 2.5 million, to 131.1 million total nonfarm employment. The annualized growth rate is projected at 1.9 percent, compared to 2.2 percent in 1999. For 2001, the consensus growth rate slips to 1.6 percent, with 2 million new jobs. Economy-watchers expect the employment cost index to rise by 3.7 percent in 2000, the fifth consecutive year of increases greater than 3 percent. The outlook for 2001 is also a 3.7 percent increase. Productivity is the brightest element of the current forecast, with the panel anticipating a continuation of the surge that began with 1998 figures. The consensus gain for 2000 is 3.1 percent. But the forecasters are also more widely divided on the outlook for productivity, compared to other indicators. At the high end, Walter Hoadley forecasts a 5 percent rise in productivity. This optimism is bracketed at the low end by William Dewald's figure of 1.8 percent. The complete National Consensus Forecast, including tables and graphs, is available as a PDF document (requires the free Adobe Acrobat Reader).
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In the U.S. economy:
- The U.S. economy gained a net 2,528,000 nonagricultural jobs between February 1999 and February 2000, a 2.0 percent increase.
- Nationally, the trade (524,000), services (1,345,000), and government (336,000) sectors produced the largest number of new jobs in February.
- The top five states with the largest number of new jobs created in February were California (445,300), Florida (276,500), Texas (220,900), New York (152,500), and Georgia (145,600).
- Nevada led all states in the rate of total nonagricultural job growth in February, with employment up by 5.2 percent. The state also led in trade (7.2 percent) jobs over the year.
- California added the largest number of construction jobs with 58,800 new jobs. The state also added the largest number of transportation/communication/public utilities (29,300), trade (88,200), services (188,900) and government (65,700) jobs over the year.
- North Carolina (-19,900), Washington (-16,600), and Texas (-10,900) experienced the largest reductions in manufacturing jobs over the year.
- The state of South Dakota led in the rate of growth in finance/insurance/real estate sector jobs with an increase of 6.8 percent.
- The Tucson, Arizona metro area ranked first among all 290 metro areas with an increase of 6.3 percent over the year.
- Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area ranked first in the rate of job creation
(4.8 percent) among the 28 metro markets with a labor force of 1,000,000 or
more. Other top growth areas included Phoenix-Mesa, Arizona (4.5 percent);
Northern Virginia (4.4 percent); Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida
(4.3 percent); and Denver, Colorado (3.7 percent).
Notice to Blue Chip Job Growth Subscribers:
This edition of Blue Chip Job Growth Update includes annual 1999 over 1998 revised total nonagricultural job growth data for states and metropolitan areas.
Data for 1998 and 1999 were revised in accordance with the Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmarking program.