Table 1 Arizona Index of Leading Economic Indicators
Leading
Index
Percent
Change
2005
January
120.1
-0.08
February
120.2
0.08
March
120.4
0.17
April
119.7
-0.58
May
119.8
0.08
June
120.2
0.33
July
119.6
-0.50
August
119.4
-0.17
September
119.2
-0.17
October
120.2
0.84
November
120.5
0.25
December
120.7
0.17
2006
January
119.7
-0.83
February
119.7
0.00
March
119.9
0.17
April
119.9
0.00
May
119.1
-0.67
June
118.4
-0.59
July
118.5
0.08
August
119.1
0.51
September
119.3
0.17
October
119.5
0.17
November
119.9
0.33
December
119.0
-0.75
2007
January
119.8
0.67
February
120.8
0.83
March
120.6
-0.17
April
121.1
0.41
May
121.1
0.00
June
119.9
-0.99
July
121.2
1.08
August
121.3
0.08
September
120.6
-0.58
October
119.7
-0.75
November
119.2
-0.42
December
118.8
-0.34
2008
January
119.1
0.25
Table 2 Net Contribution+ of Individual Components to the Arizona Index of Leading Economic Indicators
October
November
December
January
Delivery Time*
-0.06
-0.09
0.08
-0.01
Inventory Levels*
-0.10
0.06
-0.02
-0.21
New Orders*
-0.33
0.24
-0.09
0.09
Production*
-0.12
0.20
-0.31
0.17
Employment*
-0.08
0.03
-0.24
-0.05
Residential Building Permits
0.15
-0.35
-0.15
0.22
Average Workweek, Manufacturing
-0.27
-0.21
0.21
-0.14
Money Supply
-0.04
-0.38
0.08
0.18
Change in Sensitive Materials Prices
0.07
0.09
0.05
0.02
OVERALL INDEX
-0.78
-0.41
-0.39
0.27
+The net contribution of each component is calculated by multiplying the monthly percent change in its index by its relative importance.
*Based on a survey of the Purchasing Management Association of Arizona, Purchasing Management Association of Southern Arizona and the Northern Arizona Group.
