|
2012 Forecast
|
|
|
Annual Percent Change 2012 from 2011
|
|
|
Current $ Personal Income
|
Retail Sales
|
Wage & Salary Empl.
|
Population Growth
|
Single-family Housing Permits
|
|
Arizona Department of Commerce
|
5.0
|
4.5
|
1.2
|
0.7
|
3.0
|
|
Arizona Public Service
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
1.0
|
0.7
|
0.0
|
|
ASU - Economic Outlook Center
|
6.0
|
8.0
|
1.8
|
1.5
|
20.0
|
|
Davidson Fixed Income Management
|
3.7
|
5.1
|
1.5
|
1.0
|
15.0
|
|
ECON-LINC
|
5.2
|
7.5
|
1.7
|
1.1
|
25.0
|
|
EconLit LLC
|
4.8
|
6.2
|
1.9
|
1.4
|
20.0
|
|
Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
|
5.5
|
8.0
|
2.0
|
1.2
|
20.0
|
|
Joint Legislative Budget Committee
|
4.5
|
6.0
|
1.6
|
1.1
|
17.0
|
|
The Maguire Company
|
4.8
|
7.0
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
10.0
|
|
NAU - BBER
|
4.0
|
6.1
|
1.1
|
0.6
|
10.0
|
|
Salt River Project
|
4.9
|
6.2
|
1.8
|
1.2
|
20.0
|
|
Southwest Growth Partners
|
6.1
|
7.8
|
2.3
|
1.5
|
25.0
|
|
Stellar Capital Management
|
5.0
|
7.2
|
2.1
|
1.3
|
30.0
|
|
UA - Eller College
|
3.9
|
4.6
|
1.7
|
0.7
|
28.9
|
|
VisionEcon/Governing Star Group
|
5.9
|
8.4
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
31.0
|
|
Wells Fargo & Company - MN
|
4.3
|
5.0
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
24.0
|
|
Consensus - This Month
|
4.8
|
6.3
|
1.7
|
1.2
|
18.7
|
|
Consensus - Last Month
|
4.8
|
6.4
|
1.7
|
1.2
|
18.9
|
|
2013 Forecast
|
|
|
Annual Percent Change 2013 from 2012
|
|
|
Current $ Personal Income
|
Retail Sales
|
Wage & Salary Empl.
|
Population Growth
|
Single-family Housing Permits
|
|
Arizona Department of Commerce
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Arizona Public Service
|
4.5
|
4.0
|
3.0
|
1.5
|
175.0
|
|
ASU - Economic Outlook Center
|
6.5
|
8.0
|
2.5
|
1.7
|
30.0
|
|
Davidson Fixed Income Management
|
5.5
|
6.8
|
2.0
|
1.3
|
30.0
|
|
ECON-LINC
|
6.3
|
7.7
|
2.5
|
1.5
|
30.0
|
|
EconLit LLC
|
5.9
|
7.7
|
2.6
|
1.7
|
50.0
|
|
Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
|
7.0
|
8.0
|
3.0
|
1.8
|
25.0
|
|
Joint Legislative Budget Committee
|
5.2
|
6.4
|
2.4
|
1.3
|
34.0
|
|
The Maguire Company
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NAU - BBER
|
7.0
|
7.5
|
2.0
|
0.8
|
10.0
|
|
Salt River Project
|
5.9
|
6.8
|
2.4
|
1.4
|
25.0
|
|
Southwest Growth Partners
|
6.8
|
8.5
|
2.8
|
1.7
|
35.0
|
|
Stellar Capital Management
|
6.0
|
7.8
|
2.7
|
1.5
|
23.0
|
|
UA - Eller College
|
4.0
|
5.9
|
2.0
|
0.9
|
35.3
|
|
VisionEcon/Governing Star Group
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wells Fargo & Company - MN
|
4.8
|
5.3
|
2.3
|
1.5
|
19.0
|
|
Consensus - This Month
|
5.8
|
7.0
|
2.5
|
1.4
|
40.1
|
|
Consensus - Last Month
|
5.8
|
7.1
|
2.5
|
1.4
|
42.9
|
New population estimates from the state demographer show population growing again. From July 1 2010 to July 1 2011, Arizona added 36,600 residents, growth of six-tenths of one percent. Annual average employment increased by roughly 23,000 last year. We should add nearly twice that number this year. Assuming that Congress extends the payroll tax cut through year end, it's expiration in 2013 will subtract from personal income growth. All in all, Arizona's economy is moving forward. But the pace is slow...
UA-Eller College - Arizona
Over the year, total Nonfarm employment increased by 37,500 jobs or 1.6%. Gains were observed in all but one of the eleven major sectors. Educational and Health Services (EHS) accounted for about one third of the over-the-year job gains. EHS added 12,800 jobs, by far the most of all the sectors. Within the EHS sector, Health Care accounted for 10,400 of the job gains, while Educational Services added 2,300 and Social Assistance added 100 jobs respectively. The next largest over-the-year increase was in the Leisure and Hospitality (LH) sector, which added 6,400 jobs.
Arizona Department of Administration
http://www.workforce.az.gov/
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