|
2009 Forecast
|
|
|
Annual Percent Change 2009 from 2008
|
|
|
Current $ Personal Income
|
Retail Sales
|
Wage & Salary Empl.
|
Population Growth
|
Single-family Housing Permits
|
|
Arizona Department of Commerce
|
-4.1
|
-13.0
|
-6.8
|
1.2
|
-39.0
|
|
Arizona Public Service
|
-3.9
|
-12.0
|
-6.5
|
1.0
|
-27.0
|
|
ASU - Economic Outlook Center
|
-1.5
|
-10.0
|
-7.0
|
1.5
|
-40.0
|
|
Davidson Fixed Income Management
|
-0.3
|
-5.0
|
-3.8
|
1.1
|
-40.0
|
|
ECON-LINC
|
-2.2
|
-11.2
|
-6.6
|
1.0
|
-35.0
|
|
EconLit LLC
|
-0.5
|
-6.0
|
-4.1
|
1.3
|
-30.0
|
|
Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
|
-1.0
|
-9.0
|
-6.0
|
1.6
|
-35.0
|
|
Joint Legislative Budget Committee
|
-0.5
|
-10.0
|
-5.0
|
1.2
|
-30.0
|
|
The Maguire Company
|
-1.2
|
-10.0
|
-5.5
|
1.0
|
-25.0
|
|
NAU - BBER
|
-1.0
|
-7.0
|
-3.5
|
0.9
|
-30.0
|
|
Salt River Project
|
-1.2
|
-8.8
|
-6.3
|
1.1
|
-35.0
|
|
Southwest Growth Partners
|
-0.6
|
-8.5
|
-5.8
|
1.4
|
-32.0
|
|
Stellar Capital Management
|
1.0
|
-6.0
|
-4.5
|
1.3
|
-30.0
|
|
UA - Eller College
|
-1.9
|
-10.0
|
-6.5
|
1.1
|
-54.1
|
|
VisionEcon/Governing Star Group
|
0.6
|
-1.7
|
-2.6
|
1.5
|
-15.0
|
|
Wells Fargo & Company - MN
|
0.3
|
-4.0
|
-7.2
|
1.5
|
-25.0
|
|
Consensus - This Month
|
-1.1
|
-8.3
|
-5.5
|
1.2
|
-32.6
|
|
Consensus - Last Month
|
-0.8
|
-7.8
|
-5.2
|
1.2
|
-32.6
|
|
2010 Forecast
|
|
|
Annual Percent Change 2010 from 2009
|
|
|
Current $ Personal Income
|
Retail Sales
|
Wage & Salary Empl.
|
Population Growth
|
Single-family Housing Permits
|
|
Arizona Department of Commerce
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
-0.7
|
1.8
|
5.0
|
|
Arizona Public Service
|
4.4
|
5.0
|
1.5
|
1.0
|
0.0
|
|
ASU - Economic Outlook Center
|
2.0
|
5.0
|
-1.0
|
1.8
|
50.0
|
|
Davidson Fixed Income Management
|
2.8
|
2.5
|
1.5
|
1.7
|
15.0
|
|
ECON-LINC
|
1.8
|
3.8
|
1.0
|
1.2
|
22.0
|
|
EconLit LLC
|
2.2
|
3.0
|
0.5
|
1.6
|
15.0
|
|
Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
|
2.5
|
5.0
|
-1.0
|
1.8
|
20.0
|
|
Joint Legislative Budget Committee
|
2.0
|
4.0
|
1.0
|
1.5
|
20.0
|
|
The Maguire Company
|
2.0
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
1.5
|
15.0
|
|
NAU - BBER
|
2.5
|
2.6
|
2.0
|
1.2
|
20.0
|
|
Salt River Project
|
1.8
|
4.2
|
0.9
|
1.3
|
10.0
|
|
Southwest Growth Partners
|
2.0
|
3.2
|
0.8
|
1.6
|
26.0
|
|
Stellar Capital Management
|
3.0
|
3.5
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
15.0
|
|
UA - Eller College
|
0.1
|
9.6
|
-2.5
|
1.3
|
91.6
|
|
VisionEcon/Governing Star Group
|
3.2
|
2.7
|
1.6
|
1.4
|
0.0
|
|
Wells Fargo & Company - MN
|
1.2
|
1.7
|
-1.3
|
1.7
|
8.0
|
|
Consensus - This Month
|
2.2
|
3.9
|
0.4
|
1.5
|
20.8
|
|
Consensus - Last Month
|
2.1
|
3.8
|
0.4
|
1.5
|
18.3
|
Over the-month, there was a slight net gain (+0.4 percent) in total nonfarm employment. Local and state public education, with some help from private education, accounted for the gains in September. Over-the-year, every sector once again posted losses, with Construction and Professional and Business Services having the most, followed closely by Trade, Transportation and Utilities. Total nonfarm employment continues a string of 20 months of over-the-year losses, but the rate of over-the-year losses has stayed relatively stable for the last five months.
Arizona Department of Commerce,
http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/ForecastUpdate2009-10.pdf
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