|
GREATER PHOENIX REAL ESTATE CONSENSUS FORECAST
RESIDENTIAL |
| |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
| |
Single-Family Permits |
Multifamily Permits |
Apartment Vacancy (4th Qtr. %) |
Apartment Absorption |
Single-Family Permits |
Multifamily Permits |
Apartment Vacancy (4th Qtr. %) |
Apartment Absorption |
Single-Family Permits |
Multifamily Permits |
Apartment Vacancy (4th Qtr. %) |
Apartment Absorption |
| APS |
6,500 |
800 |
11.5% |
-4,000 |
10,500 |
2,000 |
10.5% |
3,700 |
24,500 |
7,500 |
8.5% |
8,900 |
| ASU - Realty Studies |
7,250 |
1,000 |
9.5% |
7,000 |
12,500 |
1,750 |
9.5% |
8,500 |
17,500 |
3,000 |
10.0% |
10,750 |
| Belfiore Consulting |
6,450 |
NA |
NA
|
NA |
11,600 |
NA |
NA
|
NA |
19,800 |
NA |
NA
|
NA
|
| CB Richard Ellis |
7,200 |
1,000 |
9.1% |
4,500 |
8,500 |
2,800 |
8.3% |
5,000 |
11,000 |
5,400 |
7.7% |
5,500 |
| Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial |
7,500 |
1,000 |
7.7% |
7,500 |
10,500 |
1,750 |
5.5% |
7,500 |
14,000 |
4,000 |
6.0% |
5,000 |
| Colliers International |
7,000 |
800 |
8.4% |
4,700 |
13,500 |
4,000 |
7.1% |
5,400 |
20,000 |
6,000 |
6.8% |
6,200 |
| CRA |
6,800 |
3,000 |
10.0% |
10,000
|
8,000 |
5,000 |
7.5% |
15,000 |
10,000 |
6,000 |
6.0% |
15,000 |
| Cushman & Wakefield |
8,000 |
1,500 |
9.5% |
8,000
|
15,000
|
4,000 |
8.5% |
9,000
|
32,000
|
8,000 |
8.0% |
10,000
|
| Elliott D. Pollack & Co. |
6,800 |
3,000 |
8.5% |
7,000
|
8,000 |
6,000 |
8.0% |
10,000 |
12,000 |
7,000 |
7.5% |
10,000 |
| Griffin Consulting |
8,500 |
1,700 |
9.3% |
5,750 |
13,000 |
3,300 |
8.7% |
5,000 |
14,500 |
4,000 |
8.3% |
5,000 |
| Marcus & Millichap |
7,600 |
1,300 |
7.5% |
6,200 |
18,800 |
5,100 |
6.6% |
3,900 |
32,000 |
8,400 |
6.0% |
5,300 |
| Southwest Growth Partners |
6,750 |
3,400 |
8.5% |
8,250 |
7,500 |
5,250 |
7.2% |
9,500 |
11,750 |
7,500 |
6.5% |
12,250 |
| U of A - Eller College |
6,400 |
1,200 |
NA |
NA |
9,500 |
2,500 |
NA |
NA |
16,200 |
3,100 |
NA |
NA |
| CONSENSUS |
7,135 |
1,642 |
9.0% |
5,900 |
11,300 |
3,621 |
7.9% |
7,500 |
18,096 |
5,825 |
7.4% |
8,536 |
| Actuals from Phoenix Housing Market Letter and ASU: |
2010 year-end inventory
Single-family: 1,077,632
Multifamily: 344,831 |
| 2010 Actuals |
6,822 |
408 |
10.3% |
20,743
|
GREATER PHOENIX REAL ESTATE CONSENSUS FORECAST
OFFICE (Millions of Square Feet) |
| |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
| |
Spec Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
Spec Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
Spec Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
| APS |
0.50 |
21.2% |
0.20 |
|
0.70 |
19.4% |
3.50 |
|
0.70 |
19.2% |
1.00 |
|
| CB Richard Ellis |
0.00 |
25.9% |
1.20 |
|
0.00 |
24.4% |
1.75 |
|
1.00 |
22.8% |
2.00 |
|
| Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial |
0.60 |
27.7% |
0.35 |
|
0.00 |
26.8% |
0.75 |
|
0.00 |
24.6% |
1.50 |
|
| Colliers International |
0.64 |
22.6% |
(0.20) |
|
0.28 |
22.2% |
0.75 |
|
0.00 |
20.4% |
2.40 |
|
| Cushman & Wakefield |
0.00 |
24.0% |
0.60 |
|
0.00
|
22.7% |
1.00 |
|
0.15 |
21.5% |
1.00 |
|
| Elliott D. Pollack & Co. |
0.00 |
25.0% |
0.50 |
|
0.00 |
24.0% |
1.50 |
|
0.00 |
22.0% |
2.50 |
|
| Lee & Associates |
0.00 |
26.6% |
0.23 |
|
0.00 |
25.9% |
0.55 |
|
0.00 |
24.5% |
1.16 |
|
| Marcus & Millichap |
0.61 |
26.1% |
0.73 |
|
0.98 |
24.8% |
1.66 |
|
1.10 |
22.2% |
2.72 |
|
| Southwest Growth Partners |
0.00 |
25.5% |
0.90 |
|
0.00 |
23.8% |
1.60 |
|
0.00 |
20.5% |
2.80 |
|
| CONSENSUS |
0.26
|
25.0% |
0.50 |
|
0.22 |
23.8% |
1.45 |
|
0.33 |
22.0% |
1.90 |
|
| Actuals from CB Richard Ellis: |
2010 year-end inventory
78.2
|
| 2010 Actuals |
0.7 |
26.60% |
0.10 |
|
GREATER PHOENIX REAL ESTATE CONSENSUS FORECAST
RETAIL (Millions of Square Feet) |
| |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
| |
Spec Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
Spec Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
Spec Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
| APS |
0.50 |
12.4% |
0.30 |
|
0.60 |
11.7% |
2.00 |
|
0.60 |
10.7% |
2.60 |
|
| CB Richard Ellis |
0.45 |
12.3% |
(0.30) |
|
1.20 |
12.3% |
1.20 |
|
1.70 |
11.8% |
2.00 |
|
| Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial |
0.50 |
12.1% |
0.00 |
|
0.50 |
12.1% |
0.50 |
|
0.50 |
12.0% |
0.50 |
|
| Colliers International |
0.44 |
12.3% |
0.15 |
|
0.50 |
11.8% |
1.40 |
|
1.20 |
11.3% |
2.00 |
|
| Cushman & Wakefield |
0.10 |
13.0% |
0.15 |
|
0.25 |
12.0% |
1.00 |
|
0.25 |
11.5% |
1.00 |
|
| Marcus & Millichap |
0.29 |
12.0% |
0.59 |
|
0.65 |
11.2% |
1.91 |
|
1.50 |
10.5% |
2.51 |
|
| Southwest Growth Partners |
0.30 |
13.7% |
0.40 |
|
0.50 |
12.5% |
0.60 |
|
0.90 |
11.1% |
1.10 |
|
| CONSENSUS |
0.37 |
12.5% |
0.18 |
|
0.60 |
11.9% |
1.23 |
|
0.95 |
11.3% |
1.67 |
|
| Actuals from CB Richard Ellis: |
2010 year-end inventory
149.0
|
| 2010 Actuals |
0.3 |
12.30% |
(0.08) |
|
GREATER PHOENIX REAL ESTATE CONSENSUS FORECAST
INDUSTRIAL (Millions of Square Feet) |
| |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
| |
Spec Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
Spec Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
Spec Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
| CB Richard Ellis* |
0.24 |
13.9% |
4.20 |
|
2.60 |
12.5% |
6.00 |
|
4.00 |
10.9% |
8.00 |
|
| Cassidy Turley/BRE Commercial |
0.00 |
13.0% |
4.50 |
|
1.00 |
11.5% |
5.00 |
|
2.00 |
9.9% |
6.00 |
|
| Colliers International |
1.10 |
14.6% |
4.50 |
|
2.30 |
13.4% |
5.20 |
|
3.80 |
12.3% |
6.30 |
|
| Cushman & Wakefield** |
0.00 |
13.0% |
4.00 |
|
0.50 |
11.2% |
5.00 |
|
2.00 |
10.5% |
4.00 |
|
| Lee & Associates* |
0.00 |
14.0% |
5.11 |
|
0.00 |
12.5% |
6.47 |
|
0.00 |
10.9% |
7.96 |
|
| Marcus & Millichap |
0.90 |
15.0% |
3.53 |
|
2.10 |
14.3% |
3.57 |
|
2.30 |
13.4% |
4.28 |
|
| CONSENSUS |
0.37 |
13.9% |
4.31 |
|
1.42 |
12.6% |
5.21 |
|
2.35 |
11.3% |
6.09 |
|
| Actuals from CB Richard Ellis: |
2010 year-end inventory CB Richard Ellis* 272.1
2010 year-end inventory Lee & Associates* 289.9
|
| 2010 Actuals |
0.7 |
14.70% |
4.46 |
|
*All Space over 5,000 sq. ft.
**Total Market (Space over 10,000 sq. ft.) |
|
