|
GREATER PHOENIX REAL ESTATE CONSENSUS FORECAST
RESIDENTIAL |
| |
2010 |
2011 |
| |
Single-Family Permits |
Multifamily Permits |
Apartment Vacancy (4th Qtr. %) |
Apartment Absorption |
Single-Family Permits |
Multifamily Permits |
Apartment Vacancy (4th Qtr. %) |
Apartment Absorption |
| APS |
11,000 |
500 |
14.5% |
700
|
12,500 |
1,500 |
13.5% |
3,900 |
| ASU - Realty Studies |
11,600 |
1,000 |
13.0% |
3,500 |
16,750 |
1,500 |
12.5% |
4,000 |
| Belfiore Consulting |
13,200 |
NA |
NA
|
NA |
19,900 |
NA |
NA
|
NA
|
| Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial |
10,000 |
500 |
11.6% |
5,000 |
14,000 |
750 |
9.6% |
5,500 |
| CB Richard Ellis |
10,500 |
300 |
11.8% |
8,000
|
14,000 |
1,200 |
10.0% |
7,500 |
| CRA |
9,000 |
750 |
14.0% |
(1,000)
|
12,000
|
1,200 |
12.0% |
500
|
| Cushman and Wakefield |
8,800 |
4,000 |
12.0% |
5,500
|
12,500
|
3,000 |
10.8% |
7,000
|
| Elliott D. Pollack & Co. |
11,000 |
1,000 |
13.5% |
3,000
|
15,000 |
1,300 |
13.0% |
4,000 |
| Griffin Consulting |
10,600 |
1,750 |
12.5% |
500 |
13,500 |
2,100 |
11.0% |
1,600 |
| Marcus & Millichap |
11,700 |
1,000 |
12.0% |
2,900
|
17,000 |
2,900 |
10.8% |
4,000 |
| Southwest Growth Partners |
10,800 |
500 |
13.4% |
(4,200)
|
14,250 |
800 |
13.6% |
(600)
|
| U of A - Eller College |
12,700 |
890 |
NA |
NA |
26,500 |
2,560 |
NA |
NA |
| CONSENSUS |
10,908 |
1,108 |
12.8% |
2,390 |
15,658 |
1,710 |
11.7% |
3,740 |
| Actuals from ASU and Phoenix Housing Market Letter: |
2009 year-end inventory
Single-family: 1,070,902
Multifamily: 336,338 |
| 2009 Actuals |
8,487
|
637 |
|
|
| 2008 Actuals |
14,375
|
6,365 |
|
|
GREATER PHOENIX REAL ESTATE CONSENSUS FORECAST
OFFICE (Millions of Square Feet) |
| |
2010 |
2011 |
| |
Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
| APS |
1.70 |
22.0% |
0.80 |
|
0.30 |
21.0% |
1.50 |
|
| Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial |
1.40 |
26.3% |
0.00 |
|
0.00 |
25.2% |
0.75 |
|
| CB Richard Ellis |
1.40 |
25.5% |
0.20 |
|
0.20 |
24.4% |
1.00 |
|
| Cushman and Wakefield |
0.00 |
25.5% |
0.50 |
|
0.00
|
24.5% |
0.75 |
|
| Elliott D. Pollack & Co. |
0.50 |
24.5% |
0.50 |
|
0.00 |
24.0% |
1.00 |
|
| Lee & Associates |
0.65 |
27.9% |
0.00 |
|
0.00 |
27.3% |
0.13 |
|
| Marcus & Millichap |
1.12 |
25.8% |
(0.12) |
|
0.31 |
24.3% |
1.29 |
|
| Southwest Growth Partners |
0.70 |
28.9% |
(1.50) |
|
0.00 |
26.5% |
(0.80) |
|
| CONSENSUS |
0.93
|
25.8% |
0.05 |
|
0.10 |
24.7% |
0.70 |
|
| Actuals from CB Richard Ellis: |
2009 year-end inventory
74.2
|
| 2009 Actuals |
1.8
|
24.5% |
(2.40) |
|
| 2008 Actuals |
3.4
|
19.1% |
(0.60) |
|
GREATER PHOENIX REAL ESTATE CONSENSUS FORECAST
RETAIL (Millions of Square Feet) |
| |
2010 |
2011 |
| |
Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
| APS |
0.50 |
12.5% |
0.50 |
|
0.50 |
12.0% |
1.50 |
|
| Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial |
0.50 |
11.8% |
(0.85) |
|
0.25 |
11.5% |
0.50 |
|
| CB Richard Ellis |
0.12 |
12.4% |
(0.65) |
|
0.25 |
12.8% |
0.95 |
|
| Marcus & Millichap |
1.11 |
13.0% |
(0.86) |
|
0.45 |
13.1% |
0.22 |
|
| Southwest Growth Partners |
0.60 |
15.2% |
(1.00) |
|
0.30 |
14.1% |
0.30
|
|
| CONSENSUS |
0.57 |
13.0% |
(0.57) |
|
0.35 |
12.7% |
0.69 |
|
| Actuals from CB Richard Ellis: |
2009 year-end inventory
148.1
|
| 2009 Actuals |
0.4
|
11.4% |
(0.95) |
|
| 2008 Actuals |
0.6 |
7.5% |
3.40 |
|
GREATER PHOENIX REAL ESTATE CONSENSUS FORECAST
INDUSTRIAL (Millions of Square Feet) |
| |
2010 |
2011 |
| |
Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
Construction |
Vacancy
(4th Qtr. %)
|
Absorption |
|
| Cassidy Turley BRE Commercial |
0.70 |
15.2% |
1.00 |
|
0.00 |
14.2% |
2.50 |
|
| CB Richard Ellis* |
0.00
|
16.4% |
(0.40) |
|
0.20 |
15.3% |
3.00 |
|
| Cushman and Wakefield** |
0.24 |
15.5% |
1.00 |
|
0.00 |
14.5% |
3.00 |
|
| Lee & Associates* |
0.00 |
16.5% |
1.80 |
|
0.40 |
16.0% |
2.50 |
|
| Marcus & Millichap |
0.95 |
17.7% |
(0.47) |
|
0.34 |
17.5% |
0.78 |
|
| CONSENSUS |
0.38 |
16.3% |
0.59 |
|
0.19 |
15.5% |
2.36 |
|
| Actuals from CB Richard Ellis: |
|
| 2009 Actuals |
4.8 |
16.1% |
(12.76) |
|
| 2008 Actuals |
13.5 |
12.5% |
(2.30) |
|
| *All Space over 5,000 sq. ft. **Total Market (Space over 10,000 sq. ft.) |
|
|
