What Is the Cost per Stimulus Job?
by Lee McPheters
As the nation continues to endure troubled labor markets and high unemployment, critics of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) have become more vociferous.
Economists and the administration have estimated that perhaps 1.5 million jobs have been created or saved by the stimulus program so far. Critics have divided $787 billion by 1.5 million jobs to derive a disturbingly high estimate of about $525,000 per job. But this approach fails to recognize that so far, only about one-third of the stimulus funds have been expended. According to the Recovery.Gov website, $269 billion in funds had been paid as of January 22, 2010. Dividing $269 billion by 1.5 million gives a very rough estimate of the cost per job of $179,000.
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Bottom 10 Weakest Western Labor Markets at Year End
by Lee McPheters
Grand Junction, Colorado was the weakest labor market in the Western states and in the nation in December, according to figures recently released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Grand Junction recorded a decrease in employment of 7.8 percent compared to last year. Las Vegas had the second greatest percentage job loss in the West, with employment decreasing by 7.4 percent. No metropolitan labor markets from Arizona, Idaho, Texas or Utah were listed in the bottom 10.
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U.S. Macro Outlook: Q3 Turnaround Confirmed
by Lee McPheters
Economy-watchers have marked their calendars for Friday, January 29. That's when the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases Q4 figures for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), along with the first estimate for GDP growth for the year 2009. The updated W. P. Carey macro forecast expects that inflation-adjusted GDP grew by 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter and declined for the year by 2.5 percent. If the forecast is realized, the Q4 real growth will be the strongest recorded since Q1 of 2006, when the economy expanded by 5.4 percent (quarterly change at an annualized rate).
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Phoenix Real Estate: Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?
by Elliott Pollack
Looking at the responses from panelists this quarter, the question becomes, "Is the glass half full or half empty?" If the glass is half empty there will be no quick recovery. If the glass is half full -- at least in the residential market (single-family permits) -- it is moving in the right direction. One would have to be seeing the world through rose colored glasses, however, to be feeling good about the results.
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States Face Personal Income Declines in 2009
by Lee McPheters
While expectations are growing for a better year in 2010, analysts are still sifting through the economic ashes of 2009 as figures become available. Personal income in 2009 probably declined nationally. Moreover, it is increasingly apparent that for many states (and most Western states), 2009 will go into the books with the worst performance on this indicator since records began four decades ago.
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Western States Led in Population Growth in 2009
by Lee McPheters
Three Western states were the nation's fastest growing in 2009, according to new population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The total number of residents in Wyoming, Utah and Texas increased by 2 percent or more, a pace double that of the U.S. as a whole. Other rapidly growing Western states were Colorado, Washington and Arizona. With the exception of Alaska, the remaining top 10 fast-growth states were from the South.
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